Why the Bush tax cuts should not be allowed to expire
Because I am concerned about fiscal responsibility, I am hesitant to advocate keeping taxes low. Nevertheless, as my colleague Shawn Ritenour emphasized in his blog, restoring fiscal responsibility while also promoting a prosperous economy requires cutting government spending, not raising taxes.
Raising taxes from the current level would have harmful consequences in any case, but those consequences are exacerbated by the fact that we are in a severe recession (some say depression). The main problem with raising tax rates is not that it will lead to a reduction in consumption and demand. If anything it will lead to increased consumption, though by government agencies and recipients of government transfer payments instead of the people who earned the money through their labor.
The more serious problem for the economy is how taxes influence production. When a greater share of each dollar earned is taxed away, it reduces the incentive to earn, whether through working additional hours, hiring more workers, or investing in capital. This problem is more serious for those in higher tax brackets, who are more likely to own businesses and have discretionary time and money that they could invest producing more goods and services. It is not spending that leads to economic prosperity, but greater production of what people value, which depends on entrepreneurs having confidence about the future direction of the economy and an expectation of being rewarded for taking risks. This is the key to an economic recovery that will restore prosperity while preserving freedom.
It is doubtful that raising tax rates on individuals with incomes over $200,000 ($250,000 for married couples), as proposed by the president, would lead to a reduction in tax revenue, but it will not lead to a very big increase. Thus if the big spenders currently in control of Congress really care about fiscal responsibility they will let the lower tax rates on the middle class expire as well. This would lead to an increase in revenue that is at least two or three times as large as from increasing taxes only on the those earning more than $200,000, who make up less than 5 percent of households.
Raising taxes on the middle class may actually have a less harmful effect on economic growth and prosperity in the long run than raising taxes on the wealthy, since work and investment by the middle class is likely less responsive to tax rates than that of the wealthy. Nevertheless, uncertainty about which tax rates will be allowed to increase and which will not also hinders economic recovery. Even if the president and Congress say they do not intend to raise taxes on the middle class, their unwillingness to bring spending under control leaves many of us expecting that Congress might raise those taxes out of fiscal necessity. This uncertainty discourages entrepreneurs from investing in capital to expand production of goods and services demanded by the middle class.
A clear commitment on the part of Congress and the administration to extend the Bush tax cuts across the board would remove some of the uncertainty and lead to greater investment and job creation. While such a commitment is not sufficient to address the looming fiscal problems faced by our government, it would be a step in the right direction.